Habitual coffee consumption and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes in individuals with a history of gestational diabetes – a prospective study

Background: Females with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) later in life. Objective: This study prospectively examined whether greater habitual coffee consumption was related to a lower risk of T2D among females with a history of GDM. Methods: We followed 4522 participants with a history of GDM in the NHS II for incident T2D between 1991 and 2017. Demographic, lifestyle factors including diet, and disease outcomes were updated every 2–4 y. Participants reported consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee on validated FFQs. Fasting blood samples were collected in 2012–2014 from a subset of participants free of diabetes to measure glucose metabolism biomarkers (HbA1c, insulin, C-peptide; n = 518). We used multivariable Cox regression models to calculate adjusted HRs and 95% CIs for the risk of T2D. We estimated the least squares mean of glucose metabolic biomarkers according to coffee consumption. Results: A total of 979 participants developed T2D. Caffeinated coffee consumption was inversely associated with the risk of T2D. Adjusted HR (95% CI) for ≤1 (nonzero), 2–3, and 4+ cups/d compared with 0 cup/d (reference) was 0.91 (0.78, 1.06), 0.83 (0.69, 1.01), and 0.46 (0.28, 0.76), respectively (P-trend = 0.004). Replacement of 1 serving/d of sugar-sweetened beverage and artificially sweetened beverage with 1 cup/d of caffeinated coffee was associated with a 17% (risk ratio [RR] = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.93) and 9% (RR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) lower risk of T2D, respectively. Greater caffeinated coffee consumption was associated with lower fasting insulin and C-peptide concentrations (all P-trend <0.05). Decaffeinated coffee intake was not significantly related to T2D but was inversely associated with C-peptide concentrations (P-trend = 0.003). Conclusions: Among predominantly Caucasian females with a history of GDM, greater consumption of caffeinated coffee was associated with a lower risk of T2D and a more favorable metabolic profile.