Inferential reasoning ability moderates the influence of mediated exemplars on risk perception

Research has shown that vivid exemplars bias risk perceptions, raising concerns about the role of media in shaping public opinion. However, receiver characteristics that moderate the influence of vivid exemplars remain understudied. We propose that insofar as exemplars in media portrayals represent (at times biased) samples of the population of events, inferential reasoning ability (IRA)–the knowledge of and skill at applying inferential and statistical principles–may enable people to avoid drawing invalid inferences from exemplars. In two message-exposure experiments employing different designs and stimulus materials, we find that exemplars conditionally influence perceptions of risk, depending on the receiver’s IRA. Specifically, higher IRA was associated with reduced influence of vivid exemplars. This work highlights the importance of accounting for heterogeneous audiences in risk messaging and offers tools for measuring audience IRA.