Projecting climate change to small basins. Potential impact of global warming on hurricane-induced flooding in south Florida

An important difficulty in evaluating potential hydrologic impacts of climate variability is that predictions of climate change require global simulation models that do not resolve phenomena typically needed for hydrologic impact analysis (regions a few tens of kilometers across or less). This difficulty can be overcome by using a physical model for smaller-scale phenomena to transfer the climate change in a coarse resolution, global model to a watershed model having the resolution needed for impact analysis. Specifically, the authors use Emanuel's model of hurricanes to derive changes in severe rainfall characteristics for watersheds that are subject to hurricane-induced flooding. As an example, the method is used to examine the potential impact of CO₂ doubling on a flood-control drainage system in South Florida.