Value-Based Optimization of Healthcare Resource Allocation for COVID-19 Hot Spots

With the emerging COVID-19 crisis, a critical task for public healthPublic health officials and policy makers is to decide how to prioritize, locate, and allocate scarce resources. To answer these questions, decision makers need to be able to determine the location of the required resources over time based on emerging “hot spot” locations. Hot spots are defined as concentrated areas with sharp increases in COVID-19 cases. Hot spots place stress on existing healthcare resources, resulting in demand for resources potentially exceeding current capacity. This research will describe a value-based resource allocation approach that seeks to coordinate demand, as defined by uncertain epidemiological forecastsEpidemiological forecast, with the value of adding additional resources such as hospital beds. Value is framed as a function of the expected usage of a marginal resource (bed, ventilator, etc.). Subject to certain constraints, allocation decisions are operationalized using a nonlinear programmingNonlinear programming model, allocating new hospital beds over time and across a number of geographical locations. The results of the research show a need for a value-based approach to assist decision makers at all levels in making the best possible decisions in the current highly uncertain and dynamic COVID environment.